Supply exceeds demand, prices fall below new costs
The supply of Potassium chloride that can be basically determined at present is 15.4 million tons after carrying forward the inventory last year plus the confirmed import volume plus the domestic volume of the whole year. There are seven months of import volume that has not yet been counted, and the normal demand of the whole year is usually 16 million tons. Considering the necessity of carrying forward the inventory normally, the average monthly import volume of Potassium chloride can fully meet the demand as long as it reaches 500000 tons. If the monthly import volume is obviously less than 500000 tons and continues, then Potassium chloride may face a reversal. However, the new cost of the newly signed large contract has already fallen below half a month, and until now, major traders are still working hard to sell, which has caused concern in the industry that the subsequent import volume may not be lacking.
Of course, we have said that if there is a major unexpected situation, the market will change. Russia and the West, China and Canada, and so on, although we don't want to see them, they are things we have to be wary of. Both ups and downs are normal, and being pinched is a big deal, so it's important to do extraordinary things during extraordinary times. Of course, if there were a contingency, then the pressure would become a treasure trove, and now urea and ammonium phosphate are just small cases to play with. In any case, downstream enterprises with immediate demand should carefully consider their own Potassium chloride procurement. Fish and bear's paw cannot be eaten at the same time, and in fact, domestically produced potassium with a guaranteed minimum is quite good at this time.
Long term bearish, but short term not without any hope
The current inventory in Hong Kong and Qinghai has increased by about 20% compared to the inventory carried forward at the end of last year. Without major accidents, the subsequent import volume will only increase or decrease. Therefore, for customers who only have demand in the future, it is recommended to be calm and not impatient. However, this does not mean that if the Potassium chloride market wants to improve, there will be no hope in the short term. In addition to uncontrollable major unexpected events, we can also pay attention to other details.
Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Sulfate
First, if nitrogen and phosphorus are really stable, let alone increase again, then the demand for Potassium chloride will also be slightly improved. After all, Potassium chloride has more advantages than nitrogen and phosphorus in terms of the price of single nutrient; Secondly, last week, the international price of Potassium chloride was mainly stable, while the price in Brazil and other local markets rebounded slightly. Whether the so-called Indian re signing of the big contract was still higher than the price of China's big contract or the strike of Canadian port workers affected the transportation of fertilizer and raw materials, in short, as long as the international price can be stable and rebound, our import quantity of Potassium chloride may face some downward correction; Finally, the heartbeat and Hunger marketing are all the leftovers of Potash Big Brother's game. No amount of goods can change the fact that the supply of goods is concentrated in the upstream and the downstream stock is empty. Now it seems that hard work and hard selling are a bit "playing" themselves. Who knows when it will change again? Therefore, it is not necessary to take immediate action. After all, the two Russia have not officially signed a contract, and the bonded goods have not yet been cleared in a large amount. However, for the recent trend of Potassium chloride, it is recommended that everyone also pay more attention
Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Phosphate Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate
