Hebei Woldi Trading Co.,LTD

Hebei Woldi Trading Co.,LTD

Urea prices remain stable during the off-season, and production enterprises have seen a significant increase in operating rates

2023 08/03

At present, the domestic urea market has entered the traditional off-season, but urea prices have continued to rise since mid June, resulting in a situation of "not being weak in the off-season". Guo Shuhua, an analyst in the urea industry at Longzhong Information, told Securities Daily: "As of July 27th, the mainstream factory price of small and medium-sized granular urea in Shandong has increased to 2480 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 270 yuan/ton compared to early July, an increase of 12.03%



Encouraged by the rise in urea prices, urea and compound fertilizer production enterprises are actively starting operations. Guo Shuhua said: "As of July 27, the daily output of the domestic urea industry was 175500 tons, and the operating rate was 82.84%, up 18.41% from the same period last year." Shi Xuxu, an analyst of Longzhong Information Compound Fertilizer, told Securities Daily: Since July, the operating rate of composite fertilizer enterprises has gradually increased. According to Longzhong Information, the current operating rate of composite fertilizer production enterprises is 35.11%, an increase of 7.92 percentage points from the beginning of July and a year-on-year increase of 13.48 percentage points





Urea prices continue to rise



From the perspective of agricultural demand, some insiders said that due to the drought in some parts of the south this year, the fertilizer use time in the southwest in summer was postponed, forming a phenomenon that the fertilizer use seasons in the southwest and South China overlapped in the first ten days of July, resulting in concentrated demand in the southwest and southern China, and the southwest supply of goods could not supplement the demand in the southern market, but increased the purchase of goods in the northern market, driving the increase in demand in the northern market, The formation of a situation where local factors drive the overall situation is also one of the main driving factors for the significant increase in urea prices since July.



In late July, as the top dressing of summer corn in the north approached its end, domestic agricultural demand gradually weakened, but urea prices continued to rise. Guo Shuhua analyzed, "The main reason for this is driven by the recent increase in international urea prices. The new round of urea bidding by Indian fertilizer importer IPL, coupled with exporters' early centralized replenishment from China, has boosted the sentiment of rising domestic urea prices



On the evening of July 25th, IPL, an Indian fertilizer importer, announced a new round of urea procurement bidding. The deadline for bidding was August 9th, and the shipping schedule was September 26th. The hijacking time and shipping schedule were both too long. Zhang Qi, urea analyst of Yide Futures, said that although domestic fertilizer exports need legal inspection at present, Indian companies have given more time windows for bidding shipping dates, so it is expected that India needs more Chinese supplies at present, which once again ignites the rise of the urea Spot market.



The rise in international urea prices has provided a good atmosphere for domestic urea production enterprises to export. A person in charge of a listed company in the fertilizer industry told Securities Daily: "The company's urea production plant is currently in a full load production state. The company will actively coordinate the domestic and international markets, closely track the international fertilizer market, actively seize market opportunities, and achieve maximum fertilizer production efficiency while effectively meeting the national agricultural fertilizer demand





Increase in operating rate of compound fertilizer production enterprises



From the downstream of the urea industry chain, it is expected that the autumn fertilizer production of composite fertilizer production enterprises by the end of July will arrive, and the ability to consume urea supply will also increase, causing seasonal fluctuations

Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Phosphate Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate