Weekly closing list of international small particle urea prices (in bulk)
(Unit: USD/ton)
Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Sulfate
picture
Weekly closing list of international small particle urea prices (in bulk)
(Unit: USD/ton)
picture
According to a report in the magazine 'Promotion', Indian meteorologists predict normal domestic rainfall in July, and India's urea sales are relatively healthy. According to their investigation of future imports, the results indicate that India will be bidding in mid July, with an estimated bidding volume of 1 million tons.
According to Liu Shuyuan, an analyst at CITIC Securities Futures, 40% to 50% of China's urea exports go to India. According to calculations, in 2022, India consumed over 35 million tons of urea, with its own production capacity or output reaching nearly 29 million tons. There is an import gap of 6 million tons. If the 1.5 million tons are removed, the import gap is only 4.5 million tons, which is significantly reduced from the previous level of 6-8 million tons. "Liu Shuyuan said that if 25% of India's import volume is calculated as the domestic proportion, the import of domestic urea in 2023 will be 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 110000 tons compared to 2022.
The significant rebound in overseas urea prices is not only related to the outbreak of overseas demand, but also to the rise in raw material prices, especially overseas natural gas prices. At present, the active futures price of natural gas in British Gas has risen by nearly 14% compared with the previous low. Natural gas inventories in the United States and the European Union have risen to 80% or more, and the space for natural gas prices to continue to rise may be limited.
From the perspective of the global fertilizer use cycle, the peak fertilizer use in India and Pakistan is concentrated between June and September each year, which is about two months later than in China. The peak fertilizer use in Latin America is concentrated between August and September each year. At this stage, it is the peak fertilizer use overseas or approaching the peak fertilizer use period. The continuous promotion of overseas fertilizer demand coupled with supply side urea factory maintenance and parking disturbances, may cause short-term or support prices to rise but not fall.
With the passage of time, demand from various regions around the world, including India, Brazil, and other places, will gradually emerge, which will inevitably bring new impetus to the market. The rise in international prices this time may still have a certain degree of sustainability, and the focus will be on the changes in the international market trend after the next round of marking.
If there is a rebound in international natural gas prices in the third and fourth quarters, the decline in international urea prices is limited, and the domestic export window opens, the domestic export volume may improve.
Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Phosphate Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate
